Expected Impact
Research indicates that the effects of climate change such as net losses in biodiversity, increasing frequency on weather-related events e.g. droughts or floods, and even the changing thaw and freeze of ice, are more likely to affect and have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities. Examples include the higher risk of coastal settlements to changes in sea-levels, the heightened effect in the tropics and sub-tropics of reduced crop yields, lower water availability in water-stressed regions, and the implications this has for human health in the case of intensified disease transmission and lowered living standards. The IPCC Third Assessment Report in 2001 states that:
"The effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life and relative effects on investment and the economy."
Sociologists have also pointed out that when it comes to vulnerable communities, small climate shocks share strong linkages to extreme social instability, precipitated by warring for scarce resources made even scarcer.
In terms of economic loss, the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, published in Oct 2006, concludes that climate change will result in the loss of 5% global GDP every year, possibly rising to 20% GDP if a broader range of impacts is considered. Combined with the finding that mitigation is estimated to cost 1% global GDP, there appears to be a clear case for positive action.
